How scientists taught me to make better decisions and eliminate overthinking?

Starting from what to wear today to whether I should take that job or not, we are making decisions on a daily basis.

Interestingly, making decisions is one of those things that we have never quite mastered, unlike other activities that tend to improve if done repeatedly.

Ask yourself how often do you get that feeling of “Darn it, I shouldn’t have done this. I should have taken that other alternative.” Chances are it is far more often than we would want.

A simple Google Search will show you that there are millions of people who get that same exact feeling and are looking to improve their decision-making skills.

I am one of them too.

Although, I didn’t find my solution on Google. It occurred to me while I was reading a book. I tend to read a lot of Non-Fiction books and in these books, authors often quote scientific studies, research or experiments related to the topic.

In all such research, the researchers always start with a hypothesis. It was this word “Hypothesis” that got me thinking.

Could the idea of hypothesis be applied to practical everyday decision making? More importantly, would it help us make better decisions?

Well, here is what those scientists and researchers taught me.

Feedback – The Oldest Trick in the Book

If we think about it, what’s the simple dumbed down step by step version of a science experiment or research?

1. Start with a hypothesis  – “I think that this is true.”
   
2. Conduct an experiment – “Here is the experiment I am doing to test whether this is true or not.”
   
3. Observe the results – ” This is what the expeirment showed me.”
   
4. Check if the hypothesis is true or not – ” Well, I was right. This is true.”
   

Let’s park this information for a moment. We will use it at the end of this section.

Now, one of the things that I have observed when we make decisions is that we almost always have to rely on incomplete information, which further leads us to doing guesswork and making assumptions.

Has this ever happened to you?

“Which series or movie should I start on Netflix? I don’t know whether I will like this one or not. Although, the reviews are pretty good. However, this other one has the actor I really like and suggests a storyline I might enjoy.”

It is impossible for the working memory in our brain to accept, digest and evaluate all possible information before making a decision. This is not a spontaneous activity.

In fact, even applying concentrated effort for a long period of time does not always guarantee optimum decision making. You only have to think of your own experiences to know that.

So, what does our brain do?

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize Winning Economist explains in his book Thinking Fast and Slow that our brain relies on heuristics, shortcuts, and feedback.

Here is a simple example to explain what this means.

What does putting your hand into fire teach you? It tells you not to do it again.

This is your brain giving you instant feedback. Additionally, this also becomes a shortcut for future to make a decision whenever a similar situation arises.

Think about it. When we see fire, we don’t wait and evaluate the science and multiple information points behind it. We make a decision to act and it is always the right one.  

Nobody ever goes like “Okay, let’s see. The fire is burning at 150 degree Celsius. My body can accept maybe 45 degree Celsius. So this would mean that if my body comes in contact, it will get burned.”

Remember that information you had parked aside at the beginning of this section? Bring it back.

If you think about it, the fire example is nothing but the four steps of the science experiment happening at a lightning fast speed.

So the question is “What if we could take our guesswork and assumptions and convert them into reliable and trustworthy shortcuts and feedbacks?”

What would this look like?

What happens when you treat a Decision as a Hypothesis?

I thought to myself “What if I started treating my decisions as a science experiment? Whenever I have to decide between some options, what if I treat that question as a hypothesis?”

Let me tell you what happened.

So, at the beginning of this week, I went shopping for face-wash.
Now, my skin is a little oily and prone to acne and pimples.

Off late, I had been thinking that I should switch to organic and more natural ingredients because it would be more effective for my condition as compared to popular branded chemical products.

So, I tested my Theory of Hypothesis for this particular decision. Here are the four steps that I went through.

Step 1: Starting with a Hypothesis

My Hypothesis was “Will using a face-wash with organic ingredients have a better effect on my face acne or not?”

Step 2: Conducting the Experiment

I decided to buy a small quantity of face-wash. I would use it for one week and see what happens.

Step 3: Observe the results

I started keeping a track of acne and pimples on my skin and what happened to them after using the face-wash.

Step 4: Was the hypothesis true?

Yes. I felt that there was a significant improvement.

What happened here in the span of a week was that my brain made a guess/assumption, got its feedback through the experiment and eventually turned it into a reliable and trustworthy shortcut to be used for the future.

If you think about it, intuitively we are doing this most of the times. However, where we fail usually is turning that feedback into a reliable shortcut for the future.  

So, the question now is “Can we generalize this method to all our decisions? What are the major benefits of this approach?”

Every Low Impact Decision could be a Hypothesis

Our decisions can usually be classified along the continuum of low impact to high impact.

Ordering a fancily named menu-item at a restaurant, which turns out to be absolutely horrible would be a low impact decision. With these decisions, you might suffer a little loss, which would be insignificant in the grand scheme of things.

However, it would be terrible to get the high impact decisions wrong. Imagine accepting a job offer that isn’t aligned to your career objectives at all or committing to a relationship which doesn’t give you as much satisfaction and happiness as you want.

Now, what I have observed is that we can safely apply our theory of Hypothesis to low impact decisions.

There are multiple reasons why.

1. Low Risk and Low Cost

As mentioned before, even if you get the hypothesis wrong, low impact decisions will at best cause you a little embarrassment or a little monetary or time loss. It’s a risk worth taking, especially when the rewards are so high.

2. Lower Experiment Times

On average, most of the low impact decisions will show you the result of your hypothesis in either two-three days or at best a week. It’s quite prudent to allow yourself that much time to gain trustworthy and reliable shortcuts for future decisions. 

3. Self Awareness

Most importantly, the results of your hypothesis will make you better aware of what works for you and what doesn’t. This means that you can eventually avoid stuff that is bad for you and do more of what is good for you.

4. Slowly Eliminate Overthinking and Decision Paralysis

Sometimes there are situations that overwhelm us and we can’t get ourselves to choose between Option 1 or Option 2.

The anxiety of choosing releases a hormone in our brain called Cortisol – the stress hormone. Eventually, our overthinking brain gives up because of sheer exhaustion.

On the contrary, if we treat our low impact decisions as a hypothesis, we will eliminate overthinking because we are telling your brain that this is not a done deal. This is not written in stone. It’s just an experiment and if it doesn’t work out, I am not going to do it again.

What I learned from Scientists?

Obviously, the Hypothesis Theory of Decision Making does not so easily apply to the high impact decisions. Primarily, because the experiment times are usually high and there is also a higher risk and a higher cost involved.

However, using Hypothesis theory on Low Impact Decision Making does make us self-aware and more conscious of what works for us. We can then use those shortcuts and heuristics to weigh better the pros and cons of high impact decisions.

So the next time you have to make a low impact decision, try and treat it as a hypothesis of an experiment.

Be clear about the outcome or the result you are expecting. Give yourself enough time to experiment and observe what happens.

Eventually, check if the hypothesis gave you the desired outcome or not. If yes, make it a point to remember that as a trusted and reliable shortcut. If no then change your hypothesis and repeat the process.

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